September 23, 2004

It's About Time

The news outlets have finally picked up an AP story reporting that Cleveland leads the nation in poverty of major cities. The report has been out for... what say... 2 weeks and it tooks that long to get it up? If noticed in the Cleveland area, this will do one of two things, if not both. Democrats in local office, particularly Jane Campbell's office, will be swept. Swing voters in the Cleveland area will swing towards John Kerry. But, that is, as I said, if people notice. Nationally, the Dems will play the story up, locally, Dems will have to be very careful as to how they play the story, if at all. Repubs locally will work their damnedest to paint Jane Campbell as an evil job-losing bitch who is financially imprudent.

At least, that's what I think. has updated poll numbers, with the race growing even tighter. Bush at 273 EV (3 over the required number) and Kerry at 255. Florida is 1% favoring Kerry... well within the MOE. AZ, NM, and NV are Bush-lite. Kerry needs to capitalize on taking back NM and taking NV and AZ from W. It is possible, even if John McCain is Senator from AZ. Kerry also needs to hit hard in AR, where Bush is currently up by 3 and won by ~5% in 2000. Dems need to retake IA, which they took barely in 2000. Bush holds a soft lead there.

In the heartland, Dems need to avoid social issues, and rather hit hard on economic issues and... (gulp)... Iraq. Allawi's speech to Congress... must prove that it is awesomely cool to be the puppet of a sitting American president. I wish someone had their hand up my ass like that.

Nothing more for now.


September 21, 2004

Polls and Other Things Numeric

It has been a wild couple of weeks in the Presidential polling game, with Democratic contender John Kerry losing several states,President Bush obtaining a sizable lead, and then the race coming back to a statistical dead heat. has Bush at 256 electoral votes, Kerry at 239, and effectively 13 states play (Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) and the trends within the states are divergent because of different polls being used. If John Kerry can hold this trend up, he may have a shot... but it looks to me that he may not win Ohio.

Rasmussen Reports is indicating a similar picture, but with Bush in the electoral college lead at 213 to 189, and 136 votes up in the air. Notably different is how Rasmussen does the calculating. Whereas Electoral Vote will award a state's votes for 1-4% leads, Rasmussen will not, thus creating a higher swing number.

Notably important: ARKANSAS. Bill Clinton's home state went solidly for W in 2000, the race is a dead heat according to Zogby.

MARYLAND: This usually solid blue state is home to another dead heat. MD went for Gore in a big way in 2000, but Survey USA has Bush and Kerry in a statistical lock.

PENNSYLVANIA: What had been trending towards Bush has now shifted back to Kerry.

OHIO: Remains a weakly Bush state. Bush needs it to win, but Kerry does not.

FLORIDA: We may be counting and recounting for years in Florida. The race is still far too close to name a leader in all polls.

I wouldn't put too much stock into polls, though... the bigpoll is the one which matters most. November 2: don't forget to vote.