Clinton comes in 3rd

Iowa sends HRC a message that she can take to the bank. That's enough to make my year.

-rl

God, I hate CNN and cable news in general

Big hat-tip to CNN's John "Durrrrrr" Roberts for this gem

It feels like it has taken forever, but the big day is finally upon us. I’ve covered the caucuses in Iowa several times, but I have never felt the buzz around this arcane gathering of voters that I feel this year. It IS, after all, the first election since 1960 that an incumbent President or Vice President hasn’t been in the race.

I might be young, but I'm not one thing: stupid.

The 1960 race featured Vice President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA) against Senator John F. Kennedy (D-MA). Yes, that's correct, an incumbent Vice President ran for office in 1960.

I believe the year that Roberts is looking for is 1928: Herbert Hoover (R-IA), who was Secretary of the Commerce Department, against Al Smith (D-NY), Governor of New York.

That, Mr. Roberts, only took a cursory search on Wikipedia and is an easily verified bit on information.

-rl

Alas - 2008.

I am very much loathe to posting about today's Iowa caucus (and using the expression "to be loathe to") as it seems like I'm just not covering any angles that aren't already being covered.

Truth be told, I don't know what to expect come the end of caucusing this evening. Polls have numbers everywhere, with the latest from CSPAN/ZOGBY having Obama sitting at 31%, Edwards at 27%, and HRC at 24%, with no other candidate in double digits. Those three candidates assume 82% of the polling - the other 18% belong to the remaining Bill Richardsons, Chris Dodds, Joe Bidens, Mike Gravels, and Dennis Kuciniches of the Democratic presidential race. I'm not sure how big those remaining 18% will be, as one must recall Iowa's 15% rule. What is the 15% rule? Any candidate not receiving 15% of caucus votes must release their supporters to either no longer vote or allow them to caucus with others. (At least that's how I've understood the rule... I may be mistaken.)

Will Kucinich's 2% help Obama's 31% when it becomes very apparent that Kucinich's instructions to his supporters - that they are to caucus for Obama should he (Kucinich) not garner the 15% necessary to stay in the game - will take effect?

I don't know. The race is effectively a three-way one and my only concern is by how much HRC will finish in 3rd place, as in mind there seems to be no escaping that fate. HRC's campaign seems to have slowly declined since HRC developed a heavy case of foot-in-mouth. BUT it's important to remember that in all likelihood, should Richardson not hit 15%, his caucus-goers will be caucusing with the Clintonistas.

Maybe a 2nd-place finish for HRC is in order. Again, I'm not sure.

Meh.

Iowans: caucus early and caucus often.

-rl

It's mid-October...

The Wicked Witch of Wichita

Hotline On Call is reporting that the AP reports that Sam Brownback is dropping out of the Republican race for President. Someone apparently decided to remind Brownback that he's not in Kansas anymore.

Flavorite Son

Pundito-extraordinario Stephen Colbert announces that he will be running for President in his home state of South Carolina as a Democrat, a Republican, and as a favorite son. No word as to whether Americone Dream will become Americone Reality.

Still Not Gay

Larry Craig and his sidekick Lumpy – err... Mrs. Larry Craig – want us to know that Larry Craig isn't gay, has never been gay, and will never be gay. Talk about standing by your man, Larry.

Congress Less Popular Than President, But Still More Popular Than Plague

Speaking of standing... around and doing nothing, Zogby/Reuters released a national poll indicating that President Bush's approval rating resumed its decline, dropping to 24%. Congress' approval ratings were less than half those of the President's – a mere 11% of those surveyed approved of the job that Congress was doing. Incidentally, the 11% that did think Congress was doing a good job were Congresspeople.

3-1, Cleveland.

The Tribe continue their magical season with game 5 of the ALCS tonight at Jacobs Field in Cleveland. No word whether Manny Ramirez has pulled his head out of his...

-rl

Predictions for the Postseason

One-Game Playoff, NL Wildcard - Colorado Rockies v. San Diego Padres

The Rockies have been on fire to close out the season and I expect little to change when they beat the Padres to lock-up the National League Wildcard spot for their first playoff berth since the 1995 Rockies.

ALDS - New York Yankees v. Cleveland Indians

The Indians went 0-6 against the Yankees during the regular season and despite some massive improvement in the pitching staff over the last month, I find it a little hard to believe that they will beat the Yankees in this series. Regardless, I still believe. Indians in 4.

ALDS - Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Disneyworldland, California

The Red Sox slipped in the last month - will that follow them into the postseason? I think it might. Despite some poor performances to close out the month, namely that 16-2 blowout at Texas, I think Angels' bats will shine and ultimately take the series from the Red Sox in 5 games.

NLDS - New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies v. Colorado Rockies

The Phillies are in the playoffs by the grace of a Mets collapse of historic proportions and going 17-12 in the last month. Philadelphia went 3-4 against the Rockies this year. Rockies went 20-8 in the last month and will be going into the postseason on a hot streak. Tough call, I think. Rockies in 5.

NLDS - Chicago Cubs v. Arizona Diamondbacks

I think this is the 1st year the Cubs have been in the postseason since Steve Bartman. The NL Central sucked this year and the Subs - er - Cubs are only in by the grace of being a mediocre team in a crap division. The curse stands. D'backs in 3.

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Those are my calls. Leave comments on what you think.

-rl