June 20, 2008

I have a question that I would like to pose to my fellow bloggers on the right and the left: will this election be a national re-aligning election?

I believe that it will be. Barack Obama has strong appeal even in the quaintest and most remote areas of Georgia, giving me hope that it may be true generally in the South, hopefully ending the nearly 40-year long Southern Strategy of the Republicans. In fact, the states that I believe will remain reliably Republican for this election are as follows:

  • Utah

  • Arizona

  • Wyoming

  • Oklahoma

  • Texas

  • Idaho

  • Kansas

  • Nebraska

  • Alabama

These states total only 83 electoral votes out of the 270 required to be elected to the Presidency.

These are the states that I think will be doggedly Democratic come November:

  • California

  • Washington

  • New York

  • Vermont

  • Massachusetts

  • Rhode Island

  • Maryland

  • Illinois

  • Hawaii

  • District of Columbia

Those 10 states total 154 electoral votes, over half of the required 270. Every other state, yes, even Alaska and Mississippi, are in play. I believe that this is not necessarily coming from a disapproval of the central "issues" of the Republican party, but rather the inability of the Republicans whom red states have elected to follow through on their promises, id est: the damaged Republican brand. Thus, I don't think that Barack Obama's election to the Presidency will constitute an endorsement of Democratic policy (for the time being), but rather will constitute a repudiation of the Republican party's inability to function as a government ethically. Now come 2010's midterm elections, we will be able to judge then whether or not the American public does accept a leftward shift in policy...

Undoubtedly the Republicans will suffer legislative losses as well and fall into an even smaller minority in both the House and Senate (55 Ds, 2 Is voting with Ds, and 43 Rs) and potentially having as few as 185 seats in the House. Potential for Republican losses may be even greater.

So, all that said, I throw the question to y'all once again: Will this be a realigning election?


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