November 5, 2006

2 Days: A Forecast from Professor Charles F. Burke of Baldwin-Wallace College

On Thursday, I was able to have a brief but candid conversation with Professor Charles Burke, Chair of the Department of Political Science at Baldwin-Wallace College, about the outcome of federal races in Tuesday's upcoming election.

Professor Burke: The Democrats will win 243 seats in the House. Democrats will take 51 seats in the Senate and that's counting the 2 Is caucusing with the Dems.

BlogginRyan: It only took the Rs twelve years to blow control of the legislature. Do you think the Dems can beat that?

Burke: No, but the Dems might lose out in some instances because they are a party without being a cohesive unit.

--

In giving Democrats a 51-seat (243-192) majority, Professor Burke has offered an opinion indicating more gains for the Democrats in the House than even the most optimistic leftoblogs. His Senate predictions were predicated upon winning 3 of the 4 remaining races considered to be toss-ups: Virginia's George "Macaca" Allen v. James "I Was Secretary of the Navy" Webb; Missouri's Jim Talent v. Claire McCaskill; Montana's Conrad "Foot-In-Mouth" Burns v. Jon Tester; and Tennessee's Bob "Chatanooga Choo-choo" Corker v. Harold "Playboy Bunny-Lovin'" Ford.

My personal bets: Dems take the House 235-200. Repubs take the Senate 50-50, with Dead-Eye Dick casting the deciding vote.

Congressional Outlook:

OH-1 REMAINS A TOSSUP (Chabot-R, Incumbent v. Cranley)
OH-2 REMAINS A TOSSUP (Schmidt-R, Incumbent v. Wulsin)
OH-4 SAFE REPUBLICAN (Jordan-R v. Siferd)
OH-6 SAFE DEMOCRAT (Wilson-D v. Blasdel)
OH-12 LEANS REPUBLICAN (Tiberi-R, Incumbent v. Shamansky)
OH-13 SAFE DEMOCRAT (Sutton-D v. Foltin)
OH-14 LEANS REPUBLICAN (LaTourette-R, Incumbent v. Katz)
OH-15 LEANS DEMOCRAT (Pryce-R, Incumbent v. Kilroy)
OH-18 LEANS DEMOCRAT (Space-D v. Padgett)

I think that based on polling and trending, Dems handily gain two seats (15 and 18) and stand the chance of gaining 4 more (1, 2, 12, and 14). Why OH-14? Steve LaTourette has actually had to run for office and campaign. This stems from two causes, the first being that Lew Katz is the strongest Democrat to run for that seat since Eric Fingerhut held it. The second reason is the national climate and general sentiment is far more sour to the Republicans than it was in 2004. Why did I list OH-4? Jim Jordan only holds an 8-point lead over Rick Siferd in one of the most conservative areas of the state. It's a race worth watching, along with the rest of these.

2 more days until the wave washes over us all...

... save for a November surprise.

-rl

1 comment:

cburke said...

i got the senate right, but overshot on the house by l0 or so.
it was very close, though.
i'm still wondering whether bush will find a job for joey, and permit the naming of a republican from connecticut to replace him.
should be an interesting year.